Despite storming into office on the wings of change, President Barack Obama has failed to pass significant legislation or bring meaningful reform to Washington. For those preaching patience, it’s worth recalling President Franklin Roosevelt’s first 100 days, President Lyndon Johnson’s Civil Rights Act, or the major tax cuts in President Ronald Reagan and President George W. Bush’s first terms.
Presidents arrive in office with great momentum and watch it steadily seep away, save for the occasional post-midterm or post re-election bump. The Obama presidency increasingly looks like a drowning swimmer trying to keep his head above water, and while his addiction to compromise and moderation might let him squeeze by from issue to issue without his poll numbers sinking, he is sure to alienate the progressive base that got him this far in the process. And once does that, he is in for a very long three years.
First, Obama has to step it up on healthcare reform. All summer and fall he has been content to let Congress work on a healthcare bill that Rolling Stone’s Matt Taibbi points out is hardly reform at all. Even though it would be absolutely soul-crushing to health reform advocates, Obama has considered signing a bill that does not include the public option, as part of his bizarre courtship of Senator Oympia Snowe (R-Me). Obama’s got to remember that Republicans will demonize this bill no matter what, so he might as well go for the best bill he can get with 51 votes.
On the war in Afghanistan, Obama’s predicament is similarly tricky. Pat Caddell, the father of modern political polling, made a striking observation during the 1968 Democratic Primary. For voters that picked the Vietnam War as their number one issue, they were torn between Senator Bobby Kennedy, the liberal dove who wanted to pull out, and George Wallace, the conservative hawk who wanted to double down. Voters conveyed a message: ‘Either lets do this war right or get the hell out of there.’
Because no one bothered to ask President Bush what the heck our mission was for the last seven years, we now find ourselves in a hopeless quagmire, partnering with a corrupt narco-dictator. Progressives want Obama to get out, but the military wants to double down. We’ll see what happens. Progressives aren’t exactly known to stand by their hawkish leaders.
Obama is really blowing it on gay rights. He doesn’t want the gays in the military issue to lead to a Bill Clinton redux, but while his political advisors may be stuck in 1994, the American people are not. National opinion about gays marrying, adopting and serving in the military has changed dramatically in the last 15 years, even in the last 5 years. A good chunk of the population is still bigoted, but bigots shouldn’t drive the debate.
After being strongly supported by the gay community in 2008, Obama allowed the homophobic Rev. Warren to give the invocation at Inaguration, refused to abolish Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, and watched as his administration not only defended the Defense of Marriage Act, but published a brief to the court comparing gay marriage to incest and sex with minors. On gay rights issues, Obama can’t hide behind a bad economy. It’s time to step up.
Finally, on perhaps the biggest domestic issue of our time, reforming Wall Street, Obama has been silent. Right-wing radio has been firing up its nutty base about the bailout, conveniently forgetting that it was President Bush and Secretary Hank Paulsen who came up with the boondoggle originally. I have to say, this time I actually am with the nuts. The Obama Treasury Department’s coddling of the financial industry is damn near criminal, it drives progressives crazy that they are stuck defending the man . One of candidate Obama’s most stirring lines was declaring that “They have not funded my campaign, they will not run my White House and they will not drown out the voices of the American people when I’m president.”
Unfortunately, he has looked the other way as Goldman Sachs appointees flood his administration and stifle the possibility of taking on Wall Street recklessness.
Republicans have said that Obama is ‘all talk’ for a while, and the time is running out before progressives start agreeing with them. That doesn’t mean you can expect a Palin 2012 movement on Dailykos.com, but a disillusioned liberal base means less money for 2010 races, fewer volunteers knocking on doors, and fewer Democrats coming out to vote. Obama’s life won’t exactly get easier if the Dems coming out of the 2010 midterms with diminished numbers.
But maybe I’m overreacting. During is presidential campaign, Obama’s rope a dope strategy induced a lot of hand-wringing, but in the end he had a clear message for his stressed out supporters:
Janos Marton also blogs at outofafghanistan.blogspot.com
